Macon Bloger, Patrick Davis Writes oncerning, Amy Carter, Ellis Black and more,

December 1, 2010

FROM:  Patrick Davis

TO:  Hi, Mr. Rhynes:

MY NAME IS PATRICK DAVIS AND I WRITE FOR A NEWS BLOG CALLED EXAMINER.COM,

Link:  http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-macon/house-district-174-rep-ellis-black-takes-calculated-risk-with-switch-to-gop

NUMBER 1:  I usually write about politics in the Central Georgia area, but I also write columns about what's happening in the state of Georgia.

It has certainly been an eye-opener to see the remaining Democratic delegation FLIP to the Republicans and if I am not mistaken, all of them had run unopposed in 2010.

Will there be any candidates to run against them in 2012?

How is Valdosta's black community responding to this? With Lowndes County having a minority population of approximately 40% and the city of Valdosta being a majority-minority city, I am totally shocked to see this happen.

It feels like there is a SECOND RECONSTRUCTION going on. With the first happening back in the 1870's. Additionally, the Republicans are closer to receiver a SUPERMAJORITY in the Georgia General Assembly.

I am concerned that the Republicans may try to revive a resolution to keep Barack Obama off the ballot in Georgia by trying to challenge his BIRTH CERTIFICATE. Waycross Republican Mark Hatfield had submitted a resolution at the end of the 2010 session, and it is very likely that he will do it again.

Plus, I am concerned about Republican efforts to "merge" historically black universities such as Albany State and Savannah State with white colleges as a so-called cost-saving measure.

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NUMBER 2:  The following are some of the columns that I had written about Valdosta:

1.  36 (GOP) 20 (Dems): Georgia Republicans increase advantage in State Senate

2.  House District 174 Rep. Ellis Black takes calculated risk with switch to GOP

3.  Georgia Democrats switching parties is a tricky proposition

Macon Political Buzz Examiner

Ha!  State Representative Ellis Black of House District 174 has made it official and will be a part of the Republican Party once the new session of the Georgia General Assembly meets in January.

Rep. Black’s defection was completed as he joined the House Republican Caucus and resigning from the House Democratic Caucus.

Black’s calculated risk is somewhat of a surprise in a mid-term election cycle, but the opportunistic conservative-leaning Dixiecrat who is now a full fledge Republican, still must face the voters in his district—all the voters that include a significant progressive base.

There could be some changes to his House District with the forthcoming redistricting or it may be left primarily intact. Regardless of how redistricting proceeds, a true progressive opponent will be needed to pose a challenge in 2012.

Republican policies have hurt all Georgia, especially in the area of education and for Democrats who stayed home must be ready to defend education publicly in 2012.

Ellis was quoted in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in regard to his switching parties and implied the national Democratic Party “has gotten too far to the left and certainly much further to the left of what Georgia is.”

In 2008, President Barack Obama came within five points of winning Georgia.

Georgia is winnable for Democrats in 2012 and so is most of rural Central and South Georgia.

However, there are areas of South Georgia that are struggling with poverty and unemployment who are white, black and Latino.

How exactly is Ellis Black truly representing the majority of his district?

Democrats may have a messaging problem with some of the more conservative Democrats; however if one objectively look at the facts, the party that helps the working and middle class are the Democrats.

Trickle-down economics doesn’t work and slowly defunding public education in an effort to turn back the clock to the days prior to the Brown vs. Board of Education is counterproductive for everyone.

However, Rep. Black feels comfortable with the philosophy of the Republican Party and stands for the party of obstruction instead of constructive change that would most definitely benefit his district that includes Valdosta, Statesville, Quitman and rural cities such as Boston in Thomas County.

“This is where I belong,” said Rep. Black. “When I was first elected, we had conservative Democrats in the leadership of the Democratic Party; today, there are none. I have a ten-year record of voting the thinking of my constituents, and I believe I can best serve my constituents as a Republican.”

Rep. Black’s district consists of Brooks, and parts of Thomas, Echols and Lowndes counties.

Lowndes County has the most registered voters in Rep. Black’s current district with more than 13,000.

Most of Rep. Blacks’ district in Lowndes County consists of areas outside of the Valdosta city limits and is primarily in the southern areas of the county.

For any Democratic opponent, rural and suburban Lowndes County has been an obstacle. The largest Lowndes voting precinct is the city of Hahira’s Shiloh Church voting location that has over 2,700 registered voters.

Only 11% from the Shiloh Church location voted for President Barack Obama in 2008.

The next largest voting precinct in Lowndes is the South Lowndes Recreation Complex location. This precinct voted for President Obama with 22% of the vote in 2008. The third largest precinct in Rep. Black’s Lowndes County district is the Papermill Union Hall—only 27% voted for the President in 2008.

Could a Democrat win over voters in rural and southern Lowndes County? Yes, but it will take a candidate who can consistently articulate the policy differences on issues such as education and be able to fight misinformation on the issue of health care. Plus, be just as receptive on farm issues in the same way Sanford Bishop has been as a representative of the Second Congressional District which includes parts of Lowndes County.

Additionally, a candidate is needed who can appeal to younger voters. Nationwide, only 11% of voters between the ages of 18 to 29 bothered to cast a ballot.

Even though Rep. Black cites talking to his constituencies as a reason for his switch, but there is a strong progressive base of voters in rural Thomas County and Brooks County.

In Brooks County, there are close to 9,000 registered voters. The largest voting precinct is Quitman that has approximately 3,000 registered voters.

Barnes won the Quitman precinct with 65% of the vote. President Barack Obama won this Quitman precinct in 2008 with 58% of the vote.

Quitman is a town of approximately 5,000 and it is two-thirds (67%) African-American.

On November 2nd, Barnes won at least 50% of the vote in four of the nine total voting precincts in Brooks County.  The Morven precinct voted for Barnes with 58%, Grooverville with 56%, Quitman with 65%. Plus the unincorporated town “Dixie” voted for Barnes with 61% of the vote and Dixie was won by Obama with 53% of the vote in 2008.

The city of Barney in Brooks County despite conservative leanings, gave Roy Barnes 40% of the vote in the November 2nd election.

In Thomas County, there are three voting locations that are included in Black’s house district: Barwick with approximately 500 registered voters and Metcalfe with its approximately 300 voters. Both of these precincts are overwhelmingly conservative and only 27% voted for Obama in 2008.

However, the largest is the city of Boston with its nearly 1,500 registered voters.

The city of Boston is also 67% African-American. In 2008, 54% of the voters selected Barack Obama and in 2010, the city of Boston was won by Roy Barnes with 50% of the vote.

Ellis Black is a proud Dixiecrat, but he is a beatable incumbent in 2012. However, voter turnout must increase and better candidates who can find common ground with Reagan Dixiecrats or Sarah Palin Democrats on issues such as education, Social Security and the federal deficit are a must.You are here:

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NUMBER 3:  By:  Patrick Davis

36 (GOP) 20(Dems): Georgia Republicans increase advantage in State Senate, November 29th, 2010 5:26 pm ET

South Georgia Dixiecrat Tim Golden who had been in office as a state senator since the early 1990’s, has now decided to change to the Republican Party mainly for self-preservation rather than serving his constituents in his Democrat-leaning district that includes the cities of Valdosta, Alma, Thomasville and Quitman.

The looming redistricting process is a likely factor for the Valdosta politician defecting, but it is also a calculated risk as well.

Switching has put the Georgia State Senate in a position that could mean Republican superiority over legislation and constitutional questions. One could characterize this as a political reconstruction in Georgia politics—especially if two more Democrats are persuaded to switch sides.

This is Georgia, but this state is looking politically more and more like Idaho.

For Georgia Republicans, 38 is the magical number in the State Senate and in essence if Republicans get to this number, Democrats will have absolutely no leverage as a minority party in the Georgia Assembly.

Five Georgia House members have changed sides since November 2nd, and this includes Valdosta Reps. Ellis Black and Amy Carter.

Golden had released a statement, and part of it was printed in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

“I am changing my party affiliation in order to better represent the views of the majority of my constituents and my own conservative, pro-business philosophy,” Golden announced this morning. “Our state continues to face great challenges. As a member of the majority caucus, I will be able to more effectively represent the people of the 8th District on important issues including the annual state budget, tax reform, reapportionment and helping our businesses put more Georgians back to work.”

COMMENTS:  Thanks Mr. Davis, and we agree that we must expand our base and stand for what is best not only for the State of Georgia but for all Americans.  Again, peace and thanks for sharing and making contact. 

George Boston Rhynes,

December 1, 2010, 3:32 PM.  God Bless!